TSX ETF Investor Centre
4 Reasons to Own U.S. Preferred Shares Now
U.S. preferred shares sold off in Q1 2023 amid investor nervousness about deposit liquidity concerns at several U.S. regional banks (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank) and Credit Suisse, a major Swiss bank. While well-capitalized by regulatory standards, these banks were unable to meet liquidity demands related to a classic run-on-the-bank, and regulators brokered a forced sale of these institutions to stronger banks.
For U.S. bank depositors, unrealized losses in investment and loan portfolios was the primary concern that led to deposit flight. These unrealized losses were almost entirely due to higher interest rates reducing the prices of U.S. Treasuries and related securities that make up the bulk of banks’ investment portfolios. The more severe asset-liability mismatches have been bank-specific and, in our view, do not represent a threat to the overall 5,000-member global banking system.
Q2 2023 earnings, reported in July, showed that earnings were in line with analyst expectations. Capital ratios remained strong and regional banks especially have generally been successful in attracting or retaining deposits. Non-interest-bearing deposits are down, in most cases replaced by more expensive interest bearing deposits, a more costly source of bank funding. Investors were generally reassured by Q2 results and U.S. bank stocks staged a minor rally after earnings season.
Choosing the Right Covered Call Strategy
Covered call funds have become popular in recent years as investors look for higher yielding investment strategies to add to their portfolios. A covered call option strategy involves investing in a portfolio of stocks and then selling call options on the same stocks that are held in the portfolio. This strategy allows a fund to generate additional income from the premiums received when selling call options, which reduces the volatility of the portfolio and allows the fund to pay out higher distributions than it would otherwise be able to do.
Canadian Lifecos – Well-Positioned for Higher Rates
Canadian life insurance companies (“lifecos”) have significant exposure to various macroeconomic factors including interest rates, equity markets and corporate credit. Interest rates typically have the biggest impact on the sector as lifeco reserves and earnings have historically had a high degree of economic sensitivity to changes in interest rates. This is the result of a duration mismatch between a lifeco’s insurance liabilities and its invested assets. Most life insurance products result in a long duration liability for the insurer that writes the policy. This occurs since buyers of life insurance policies are often in their early 40s and are therefore expected to live for several decades. A lifeco’s invested assets, on the other hand, typically have a shorter duration profile. This mismatch means that lifecos are generally helped by rising interest rates and hurt by declining interest rates.
Safety in Tech?
The tech sector (S&P 500 Info Tech Index) has outperformed the broader market and all other sectors year-to-date, with a 21.5% total return vs 7.0% for the S&P 500 Index, despite macro headwinds and volatility in the bond market due to recent bank failures. Many investors are wondering whether the tech sector, particularly mega cap tech, is the new safety trade.
Canadian Banks – Stability in Good Times, Bad Times
The global banking industry has once again been thrown into turmoil with the recent regional bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, and Signature Bank in the U.S., as well as the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS Group at the behest of regulators in Switzerland. While there were specific issues impacting each of these entities, these recent failures have highlighted the risks associated with the rapid increase in overnight interest rates over the past year as central banks around the world have moved swiftly to tighten policy in response to high inflation. These risks include declining asset values (i.e. bond investments) as a result of higher rates across the yield curve, particularly for banks that run a duration mismatch on their balance sheets, as well as the potential for banks to quickly lose deposits as depositors search for higher yields in investment products and/or flee in the face of a real or perceived banking crisis.
Investment Solutions for Market Uncertainty
In this article, we discuss several strategies that may help investors navigate today’s market uncertainties
Europe - The Worst May Be Behind Us
European equity markets have strongly outperformed the U.S. over the past three months in both U.S. dollar and local currency terms. The magnitude of the recent outperformance is unprecedented in the last 15 years, with the Euro STOXX 50 versus S&P 500 materially breaking above its 100-week moving average for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis, except for a brief period in first half of 2015 when the European Central Bank (ECB) launched Quantitative Easing in January. The 100-week moving average is a trend indicator, and the break above this trendline could be an indication that Europe’s structural underperformance has come to an end. We believe several factors have led to Europe’s recent outperformance and should continue to drive this trend.
2023 Outlook: Pause or Pivot and the Recession Obsession
We expect 2023 will be another challenging year, especially in the first half as the market continues to price in recession scenarios. While inflation has begun to decelerate, it remains elevated and there is still some uncertainty in the deceleration path. The rapid pace of monetary policy tightening has been a headwind for risk assets but the expected moderation in rate hikes should become less of an overhang as the effects of recent policy decisions begin to reflect in the economic data. As the year unfolds, the market’s ability to price in a mix of growth, inflation, and recession risk should become more clear and provide support for risk assets. As a result, we believe investors should remain defensive in this volatile inflationary market regime.
U.S. Preferred Shares – An Attractive Income Opportunity in Volatile Markets
Rapid rate increases in 2022 led to substantial price declines broadly across fixed-income asset classes including U.S. preferred shares. The Manager believes the current yield and price level of U.S. preferred shares offer an opportunity for investors to lock-in an attractive level of income with long term capital appreciation potential.
A Unique Multi-Asset Approach to Income & Growth
The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 7.7% year-over-year in October, which was the smallest increase since the beginning of 2022. The equity market responded with a greater than 800 point surge in the Dow Jones Index on October 12, 2022. However, one month of lower-than-expected inflation data doesn’t signal an equity market reversal and the near-term interest rate decisions from the U.S. Fed still remain unclear. Given the current backdrop, prudent investors should consider a diversified investment portfolio that will thrive in both volatile market conditions and through periods of recovery.